Plaza Station Library Estimate Jumps to $37 Million — And the Tax Risk Just Went Up

Only after meaningful opposition emerged did El Cerrito finally release updated cost estimates for a new library. Now that the numbers are public, the headline is unmistakable:

The Plaza Station Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) library is now estimated to cost $37 million.

That figure, provided by consultant Griffin Structures, will be presented to the City Council on January 20. It represents a 75% increase from the $21 million estimate shared with Council in 2023, and far exceeds the $28 million figure circulated as recently as August 2025.

But the price increase has another consequence that has received far less attention — it dramatically increases the likelihood that the original 17-cent-per-square-foot parcel tax would need to rise – almost immediately.

A Higher Project Cost Means a Higher Tax Burden

The 17-cent parcel tax was framed around much lower project assumptions. A library now estimated at $37 million — with unresolved financing, leasing, and construction risks — almost certainly cannot be delivered under the original tax structure.

That matters because City Council has the authority to increase that parcel tax once approved.

In other words, while voters may be presented with a 17-cent figure at the ballot, the underlying cost escalation means that rate is unlikely to hold over time. The larger the project, the greater the pressure to raise the tax — without returning to voters for approval.

This is not speculation. It is a direct function of how parcel taxes and escalating capital costs work.

The Estimates — Released Late, Still Incomplete

According to the newly released staff report, Griffin Structures evaluated five options:

• $10 million — renovate the existing 6,500-square-foot library
• $29 million — rebuild and expand the existing library to 13,000 square feet
• $29 million — renovate an existing building into a 20,000-square-foot library
• $37 million — build a 20,000-square-foot library within the Plaza Station TOD
• $43 million — build a new standalone 20,000-square-foot library on a new site

These numbers arrived only after public skepticism intensified — and even now, they are presented without full disclosure of assumptions, contingencies, or downside scenarios.

Parking, Assumptions, and What’s Left Out

Parking alone introduces millions in cost variation:

• $6.4 million for a parking structure at the current library site
• $4.7 million at a new standalone site
• No dedicated parking assumed for the Plaza TOD option

Excluding parking lowers the headline price — but it does not eliminate the cost. It simply shifts it to residents, surrounding streets, and future policy decisions.

Again, assumptions matter. And assumptions have consequences.

And staff are recommending creating a task force to review options. Which one might wonder, shouldn’t this have been done in 2017, immediately after the measure B bond failed?

Transparency Before Taxes Rise

City staff will present the report at the January 20 City Council meeting. The agenda packet is now public. But key questions remain unanswered:

• How sensitive is the project to further cost escalation?
• What happens if grant funding is delayed or denied?
• How much flexibility does Council have to raise the parcel tax — and under what conditions?
• What protections exist for residents once the tax is approved?

When a project’s price tag grows by 75%, the risk to taxpayers grows with it — especially when elected officials retain the authority to increase the tax rate after the fact.

Residents are not being unreasonable by asking for clarity. They are being prudent.

Before any tax measure moves forward, voters deserve to understand not just the initial number on the ballot, but the real financial exposure that comes with it — and who controls that exposure once the election is over.