El Cerrito Isn’t Growing —So Why Are We Planning Like It Is?

Inspired by a recent social media post

A city council member recently reported via social media that El Cerrito is growing—and that this growth supports the need for a new library. But when you step back and look at the actual numbers, that claim deserves a closer look. In 1960, El Cerrito’s population was 25,437. In 2020, it was 25,962. That’s an increase of just 525 people over 60 years—roughly 2.1% total growth, or about 0.03% per year. Even with recent estimates around 26,400, the long-term trend remains essentially flat. That’s not meaningful growth—it’s stability. And stability matters, because building long-term infrastructure based on a growth narrative that doesn’t exist is how cities get into financial trouble. This isn’t about whether libraries are valuable. They are. This is about whether the scale of investment being proposed matches reality.

Across California and the country, how people use libraries has fundamentally shifted. In-person visits have been declining for years. National data shows that physical library visits dropped sharply even before the pandemic and remain significantly below pre-2020 levels today. Visits per user have fallen dramatically over the past decade. Major cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco have seen steep declines in foot traffic. Even today, in-person visits are still roughly 30–35% below pre-pandemic levels in many systems. Here in California, the shift is just as clear. Libraries are seeing millions of digital visits alongside fewer physical ones, reflecting how services have moved online. This doesn’t mean libraries are obsolete—it means they are evolving. People are still using libraries, just not in the same way and not always in the same buildings.

Nearby communities are facing the same realities, but many are choosing a different path. Instead of building entirely new libraries with long-term tax commitments, they are renovating existing facilities, modernizing interiors and technology, and expanding programming instead of square footage. Communities like Richmond, Kensington within the Contra Costa County Library system, and Antioch have all invested in upgrades and refurbishments rather than massive new builds. Renovation costs significantly less, adapts existing assets to modern needs, and allows flexibility as usage patterns continue to evolve. It’s a strategy grounded in reality, not assumptions.

If El Cerrito were growing rapidly, the case for a new facility might look different. But we’re not. If library foot traffic were surging, that might justify expansion. But it isn’t. So we have to ask the most important question: what problem are we actually trying to solve? Is it lack of access when we already have a library funded through the county? Is it outdated space, which can be addressed through renovation? Is it programming needs, which require investment in people, not just buildings? Or is it something else entirely?

This moment calls for discipline, not assumptions. Libraries still matter, but the model is changing toward digital access, flexible spaces, and community-centered programming. El Cerrito has an opportunity to follow that evolution. Renovate what we have, improve what we deliver, and align investments with actual usage. Because the goal isn’t to build the biggest building. It’s to deliver the best service. And those are not the same thing.